AL East: Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays?

Spring Training '09 starts in just a few days. It doesn't look like, right now, that any of the AL East teams expected to compete are going to be changing. The question now is, which team will win it? The Rays had the best team, as they are defending American League Champions. The Red Sox are practically the same, except for a few new 1 year additions. The Yankees made the most drastic changes, and some people are saying that they are now better than both teams, and then some are saying they are still third best. I think now might be a good time to compare each ballclub in every aspect of their team, and then decide who is better. Here we go!

Starting Rotations

Aces

Yankees - CC Sabathia

Red Sox - Josh Beckett

Rays - Scott Kazmir

CC Sabathia had one heck of a year last year, and he almost single-handedly carried the Brewers to the playoffs. The year before, he won a Cy Young. His durability isn't a problem, and I don't think his weight or conditioning will be a problem. At least not next year.

Josh Beckett had an injury plagued season last year, and while he was healthy he had a rough time with it. The year before, however, he won 20 games and had a remarkable postseason. As far as postseason pitchers, he is the best out of the three.

Scott Kazmir is really good, but he has to stay healthy, similar to Beckett. He only made 27 starts last year. As an ace, you need to be able to lead your team in 33-35 starts, and pitch 200 innings. If he stays healthy, he should have a great year.

I think that they all have the potential to have Cy Young type years. However, I think that CC Sabathia comes with the least risk, and that he is the best ace. The advantage goes to the Yankees.

# 2 Starter

Yankees - Chein Ming Wang

Red Sox - Daisuke Matsuzaka

Rays - James Shields

Chein Ming Wang is a great pitcher, but he is coming off a serious injury and I'm not sure if he can return to the same level he was the 2 years before. I think he can, and he can return to another 19 win season, and be a strong #2.

Daisuke Matsuzaka had a tremendous season last year. He won 18 games, had a great ERA, got Cy Young votes, and was overall, just one of the most difficult pitchers to hit against that I have ever seen. His only problem is that he walks too many batters, but his great stuff seems to put that aside.

I really like James Shields. He won 14 games, had a mid 3's ERA, and pitched innings. That was my favorite part about him. He pitches innings. He doesn't get hurt, and he can pitch in the postseason. 

Overall, I think it is a competition between Shields and Matsuzaka, and I think Dice-K's stuff outshines everything that James Shields has to offer. The advantage goes to the Red Sox.

#3 Starter

Yankees - AJ Burnett

Red Sox - Jon Lester

Rays - Matt Garza

AJ Burnett has the ability to be one of the nastiest pitchers in the game. He needs to stay healthy, and he needs to have his best stuff more often. Remember how much he owned the Yanks last year? He can't own them anymore. He needs to put the stuff he had against the Yankees against other teams, and more often. If he can do that, he  will be fine.

Jon Lester had a great year last year. Period. He is young, he is a cancer survivor, and a great pitcher. I think he has a bright future.

Matt Garza is a good young pitcher. I think that he also has a bright future, but I don't think he is as gifted as Lester

Here, this one isn't that hard. Unless Burnett has a career year, I think that this one goes to Lester. The advantage goes to the Red Sox.

#4 Starter

Yankees - Andy Pettitte

Red Sox - Tim Wakefield

Rays - Andy Sonnanstine

Andy Pettitte had a really rough year in 2008 with a 4.54 ERA. However, I think he is more than capable of turning it around. We watched Mike Mussina in 2008 with a comeback season, in what turned out to be his final season. This is, in all likelyhood, Pettitte's last season as well. I think he doesn't have the ability to make a comeback the way Mussina did, simply because Mussina has better stuff, but I do think he can have a better year.

Tim Wakefield - One thing I've noticed about Tim is that he is either really good, or really bad. It's fun to watch him pitch, but he just isn't a great pitcher anymore. I'm expecting an ERA in the mid to high 4's for him next year.

Andy Sonnanstine had a very good year last year and I think he will only improve. He is the youngest out of the three, and posted numbers better than both other 2 pitchers last season.

I think Pettitte has the capability out of being the best of these three, but I think that the most likely will be Sonnanstine. The advantage goes to the Rays.

#5 Starter

Yankees - Joba Chamberlain

Red Sox - Brad Penny

Rays - David Price

I think Joba should be in the bullpen. Period. However, the Yankees don't feel that way, so he's their fifth starter. He had great numbers as a starter last year, and if he can stay healthy and limit the pitches he throws per batter, he could be successful.

Brad Penny is full of question marks. We have no idea how he is going to do. He could be an ace-type pitcher, or he could be a bust (Pavano). We just don't have any way of knowing until the season starts though. John Smoltz could also join the rotation later in the year, by the way.

David Price has the potential to be just as good, if not better, that Joba Chamberlain. However, he has not proven himself as a starter yet. I'm not saying that Joba has, but I'm saying that Joba has some big league experience there. Price doesn't. I think hopes are high for David Price though, no doubt about it.

Overall, they all have question marks. I'm going to have to say that the advantage goes to the Yankees.

Now the question is "which team has the best overall rotation?" This is a really, really close one. They are three of the best rotations in baseball. I think that the Red Sox have the best top three overall, the Yankees have the best pitcher overall, and the Rays have least differential between their ace and their #5. I don't think it's the Red Sox because they completely fall off after their first 3 pitchers, and Josh Beckett has health questions. The Rays are a great rotation, but they are really not the best in any of them, and if they are, it is not by a large amount. The Yankees have the potential to be the best, and also are the most likely to be the worst of the 3. They have one sure thing in CC Sabathia, but the rest are question marks. Can AJ Burnett stay healthy? Can Wang bounce back after missing most of last season? Can Andy Pettitte bounce back? All of these are question marks. I think they are question marks with a good chance of turning out well for the Yanks, however. Overall, I think the most complete rotation with the least question marks will be in Tampa. The Best Rotation is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Bullpens

Yankees - Brian Bruney

  Jose Veras

  Dan Geise

  Damaso Marte

    Edwar Ramirez

Red Sox - Hideki Okajima

  Ramon Ramirez

  Manny Delcarman

  Takashi Saito

  Javier Lopez

  Justin Masterson

Rays - Grant Balfour

    JP Howell

   Joe Nelson

   Jason Hammel

   Brian Shouse

   Lance Cormier

Overall, when you look at it, the Red Sox and Rays both have players who have faced injury problems and haven't played in a while (Javier Lopez). When you look at the Yankees, they have a bunch of home grown players who proved themselves last year. The bullpen was the strength for the Yankees last year, and I think it will be the same this year. The Best Bullpen Goes to the New York Yankees.

Closer

Yankees - Mariano Rivera

Red Sox - Jonathan Paplebon

Rays - Dan Wheeler

Well, you can pretty much eliminate the Rays out of this one. Look at it this way. Mariano Rivera is the Greatest Closer in the History of the Game. He had a better year than Paplebon last season. The only thing with him is that he is coming off shoulder surgery. I think he has a better than 80% chance that he will come back healthy, strong, and ready to pitch. If he does like I expect, this one isn't that hard. The Best Closer Goes to the New York Yankees.

Position Players

Catcher

Yankees - Jorge Posada

Red Sox - Jason Varatek

Rays - Dioner Navarro

This one isn't that difficult. Posada and Varatek (especially Varatek) are both well out of their prime. Posada is coming off surgery, he is a question mark. Varatek just can hope to do better than a .220 average. The advantage goes to the Rays.

First Base

Yankees - Mark Teixiera

Red Sox - Kevin Youkilis

Rays - Carlos Pena

Pena is out. He is a great player, but just not at the level that Youk and Tex are at. Both Youkiilis and Teixiera are in their prime. Both are great players. In this one you don't have to worry about intangibles. So, I just looked at the numbers. Youk's average is 4 points higher, but Teixiera had more production. I also think he offers more on defense. The advantage goes to the Yankees.

Second Base

Yankees - Robinson Cano

Red Sox - Dustin Pedroia

Rays - Akinori Iwamora

Not that hard. This one goes to the Raining MVP. The advantage goes to the Red Sox.

Third Base

Yankees - Alex Rodriguez

Red Sox - Mike Lowell

Rays - Evan Longoria

Steroids or not, A-Rods the best player in the game. The advantage goes to the Yankees.

Shortstop

Yankees - Derek Jeter

Red Sox - Jed Lowrie

Rays - Jason Bartlett

I think that Jeter still has a lot of game left. He is a great influence in the clubhouse. He's the captain, he can still hit in the clutch, and he can still play shortstop. He's not at the level of Bartlett defensively, but I think he can still deliver, and still above the other 2. The advantage goes to the Yankees.

Left Field

Yankees - Johnny Damon

Red Sox - Jason Bay

Rays - Carl Crawford

I'm going to have to go with the Rays here. Johnny Damon is still a great leadoff hitter, but I don't think he nor Bay is at Crawford's level. Crawford is faster than both, and he can hit as just as good. The advantage goes to the Rays.

Center Field

Yankees - Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera

Red Sox - Jacoby Ellsbury

Rays - BJ Upton

Again, I'm going with the Rays. You can pretty much eliminate the Yankees out of this one, and I just don't think Ellsbury is as good as Upton. Upton had better numbers last year, and I also think he can play better in the postseason. The advantage goes to the Rays.

Right Field

Yankees - Xavier Nady

Red Sox - JD Drew

Rays - Gabe Kapler

I think that Nady isn't capable of putting up the overall numbers he produced last year. I think what you saw the last month and a half last season is what you are going to get from Nady this season. The Rays really don't have a Right Fielder, so I think the best choice is Drew. The advantage goes to the Red Sox.

Designated Hitter

Yankees - Hideki Matsui

Red Sox - David Ortiz

Rays - Pat Burrell

Hideki Matsui has a bunch of question marks, but if he stays healthy then he should be able to produce 100 RBI. Pat Burrell I think can do a lot more out of the DH Spot, and hit better than he did in the National League. However, even though Big Papi took a big drop off last year, he can go back to being the big player the Sox can count on (likely). I still don't think either of the other two can go up to his level, especially in the clutch. The advantage goes to the Red Sox.

When you look at the whole thing, each team has their strengths and weaknesses. The Rays and Red Sox are pretty much the same team, but the Yankees have added Tex, and are getting guys back from injury. I think that if you look it all, the Yanks have the best lineup. The Best Lineup Goes to the New York Yankees.

Manager

Yankees - Joe Girardi

Red Sox - Terry Francona

Rays - Joe Madden

I realize that Madden won the Manager of the Year award, but I think that Terry Francona just has the most postseason experience, and has the best methods. I like Joe Girardi's methods too, but he hasn't had enough success to be considered for this one. He needs to win a championship, or at least get to one. Francona has done that. Madden has done that. Out of those two, this one goes the Terry. The Best Manager Goes to the Boston Red Sox.

Well, thats it. The Yankees and Rays were pretty close in the lineups, the Yankees were really the only choice for the bullpen, and the Rays, in my opinion, have the best overall rotation. The Rays, although I didn't mention it, also have the best defense. The Red Sox have the best coaching staff. I think that missing out on Teixiera was big for them. The players, not the coaching staff, play the game. I just think that the other two teams have, overall, better players. So, to answer the question of "Who will win the AL East?" I'm going to go with the Yankees to win the east, and the Rays to take the wild card. Now, if any Red Sox fans read this, I really tried not to be biassed toward the Yankees, and I don't think I was. I will agree that you guys had the best team in every year since 2004 (except for 2006). I weighed in a lot on injury possibilities, and other intangibles. If I didn't then things might have been different. I also may have a different way of thinking then you guys, like what I consider to be good and bad in a player, and what I consider to be more important. 

Everyone please feel free to leave your comments on what you thought about this post, and answer this question. Who do you think will win the East?